Fasten Your Seat Belt
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Jeff: [00:00:00] Hello, everyone. It is great to be back with you for episode number two of Written Reflections. The last two weeks have been quite busy for me. When I left Intel, I was worried that I would have little to do and in no time at all I would be bored. But fortunately, that is not the case, as you will hear in today's podcast.

To begin with, though, I would like to express my sorrow and the horror of watching the Relentless wildfires ravage parts of Los Angeles. It is heartbreaking to witness and to consider the loss. of life and property of so many. All of us in this ultra connected world are likely to know someone impacted.

Uh, I have a daughter who lives in Southern [00:01:00] California and fortunately lives safely away from the affected areas. My other daughter experienced the frightening moments of an uncontrolled wildfire when she lived in San Diego more than 10 years ago. Upon returning to her home, we were also thankfully amazed to find that the flames had stopped right at the edge of the fence outside her apartment door.

As of today, it sounds like things are improving with the weather. And so my thoughts remain with all of those who are impacted. In today's episode I plan to amplify the first point I made in episode one about the certainties in cross border trade for 2025. I will also provide you with some useful resources and finish with lessons I learned as the chief trade officer for Intel about managing through [00:02:00] uncertainty.

Going forward over the next couple of months, I will address the remaining four certainties. In the last episode, I declared the first certainty to be a new president of the United States, new members of his administration, and new policies. All of this will lead to a time of unpredictability and volatility, and this requires traders to be on the alert and establish robust sensing capabilities.

Someone who is alert is quick to notice any unusual and potentially dangerous or difficult circumstances. In our situation, vigilance is necessary given prior actions, promises and statements made by this upcoming administration. I have met with many individuals and have attended a couple of [00:03:00] conferences and gatherings over the past month, and the most common statement I hear is, we just don't know what is going to happen.

There is an abundance of speculation. but an unsettled wait and see approach.

As we consider what it takes to be alert at this time, let me discuss four highly active situations that are worth watching as President elect Trump takes office in a couple of days. Each of these situations are evolving by the day, and in some cases, by the minute. By the time you listen to this, the situation may have changed significantly.

So first Post inauguration. It is possible that within minutes after or [00:04:00] during the next day President Trump will issue 100 executive orders. Now this may be an exaggeration, but there will be executive orders designed to reverse existing regulations or policies and or establish new ones. Any number of these executive orders may impact cross border trade.

And when this happens, all of us will be scrambling around trying to determine The impact and required actions. Concurrently, there will continue to be a multitude of Senate hearings to confirm or reject cabinet level nominees put forward by Trump. Watching these hearings brings back vivid memories of my testimony.

in front of the Senate Select Committee on Investigations back in September. I now have a much greater appreciation for the incredibly [00:05:00] difficult and sometimes uncomfortable nature of sitting at that table, and I have been watching these with much interest. So, some questions just to, to think through.

What exactly are in the EOs, and will the hearings provide greater insight into potential policies in a multitude of areas? Second is tariffs. We have all heard from President Trump during the campaign that he plans to slap aggressive tariffs on all sorts of U. S. imports as soon as day one. Yesterday, during the Senate confirmation hearing for U.

S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Besant, addressed questions on tariffs. He described three purposes for Trump's tariffs. The first would address unfair trade practices by foreign nations. The second is a revenue raiser for the federal budget. And [00:06:00] third, negotiating tools, sometimes for non trade objectives. Now, there have also been statements that Trump may slow down the timing of implementing such tariffs to be more strategic.

Potential scenarios include an immediate increase in tariff rates on existing tariffs, including up to 60 percent on China. He could also declare a national economic emergency, which would give him latitude to move quickly on additional items and target new countries. With this amount of uncertainty, it is critical, if you have not already done so, to be on the alert and to be preparing.

Some questions, uh, again, to ponder. Will Trump levy tariffs immediately upon taking office, or will he take a slower, more measured approach? What will be the duty levels of tariffs, and for which products? What are the real implications for the economy with any [00:07:00] one of these actions? And, how might countries retaliate?

or reciprocate.

Third, I cannot leave this subject without mentioning new export controls. During the last week, the Biden administration, in a last minute effort to further restrict China, the Bureau of Industry and Security published six consequential new export regulations crafted to mitigate the PRC's effort to obtain high end advanced computing semiconductors that are necessary to enable the development, and production of technologies such as AI.

One of the most controversial rules provides a framework for AI diffusion. It divides countries into three tiers and establishes quotas for who can receive a certain number of AI chips. Another rule seeks to control software and components used in vehicles. [00:08:00] Outgoing U. S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo said this week, Cars today are not just steel on wheels.

They are computers. They have cameras, microphones, GPS tracking, and other technologies that are connected to the internet. Through this rule, the Commerce Department is taking necessary steps to safeguard U. S. national security and protect Americans privacy by keeping foreign adversaries from manipulating these technologies to access sensitive or personal information.

The other four rules add more companies to the entity list. enhance controls on advanced computing semiconductors to to enhance foundry due diligence. They address national security risks related to biotechnology and provide some additional due diligence guidance on advanced computer ICs. Again, according to the Secretary, advanced [00:09:00] AI capabilities facilitated by supercomputing and built on advanced semiconductors present U.

S. national security concerns because they can be used to improve the speed and accuracy of military decision making, planning, and logistics. These capabilities may also be used to be used for cognitive electronic warfare, radar signals, intelligence jamming, and to support facial recognition surveillance systems for human rights violations.

Several companies have vociferously complained that these rules were being rushed out without adequately considering industry input. And to be clear, These are complex rules that will have significant impact on U. S. industry and potentially U. S. technological leadership. And we will need much more time to unpack.

So some key [00:10:00] questions. Will Trump overturn, delay, or significantly change these rules put forward by the Biden administration? Or will he use them as bargaining chips to negotiate a deal with China? And also, more importantly, how will China respond? Now, finally, in a situation that is changing by the minute, the question of what will happen with TikTok is top of the news.

On the 19th of January, the day before the inauguration, a law goes into effect that will shut down TikTok. However, over the past few days, the fate of TikTok has taken several twists and turns with the Biden administration, declaring just yesterday that it will not enforce the ban, opting to let the Trump administration deal with it.

[00:11:00] Today, I'm Trump confirmed that he had conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping saying that they had a great talk about TikTok. The president elect also told CNN that TikTok's future ultimately goes up to me. This is despite the Supreme Court's decision today to uphold a federal law banning the app unless it is sold or banned.

Also, really interesting to see that the TikTok CEO, Xu Zichu, has been invited to attend Donald Trump's inauguration and will be granted a prime seating location on the dais. You know, as a background, the primary concern of the U. S. is Chinese ownership and major national security risks that warrant the shutdown.

Interestingly, The new law does not prohibit [00:12:00] someone from using TikTok, but it does require app stores to remove it. Amazingly, Chinese social media app, Red Note, referred to as Xiaoshangshu in Chinese, which translates to Little Red Book, was among the top downloaded free apps in Apple's U. S. App Store. So far this week.

I think this just demonstrates how U. S. users of TikTok are seeking a new platform ahead of this potential ban. So some questions. How does Trump navigate this one? And who will buy TikTok? And what will the Chinese do in response? Well, these are just four situations out of many other potential actions that that require us to be on the alert.

Next, I would like to provide you with some extremely useful information I have [00:13:00] digested over the past two weeks equipping me to be on high alert. For those of you not familiar with the Eurasia group, I would highly recommend looking at their carefully thought out synopsis, of the top 10 geopolitical risks for 2025.

They produce such a list every year, and I find it useful to look at the interplay of geopolitics at a 30, 000 foot view. Ian Bremmer leads the charge, and you can find this list from multiple sources if you search by his name or by Eurasia Group. Also this week, I received my monthly newsletter from The Wire China.

and was pleased to read an informative article written by Eva Du. She is the Washington Post China Business and Economy Correspondent, and this article was taken from her recently published book, From House of [00:14:00] Huawei, The Secret History of China's Most Powerful Company. Now I find it, found it to be fascinating, and highly relevant since I have visited the headquarters of Huawei.

And I have spent more than five years trying to comply with and navigate regulations levied against them. You can read this article on LinkedIn under The Wire China. And it also appears that her book was just released this week. Speaking of books, per a recommendation from a college, colleague, I ordered and revised my copy of a new book released this month titled Techno Nationalism.

How it is reshaping trade, geopolitics, and society. Alex Capri, a former KPMG and PwC consultant, who is based in Singapore and teaches business and public policy at the National University of Singapore, is the author. [00:15:00] Now Alex sums up the book's thesis in this way. Great power competition between America and China has spawned a fierce innovation race.

involving the most critical 21st century technologies, from advanced materials, AI, and biotech, to nanoscale manufacturing and quantum science. At the heart of it, all are semiconductors, the ultimate foundational technology and power multiplier. Now having read, um, having already read, I should say, the first two chapters, I can assure you that you will find it incredibly relevant.

to the challenges we are facing in the coming year. Among other challenges, Alex examines the impact of export controls and sanctions and the myths and misconceptions regarding strategic decoupling and de risking from China. I am really looking forward to [00:16:00] sitting down with Alex in a small group gathering next month, so I ask you check this one out.

And finally, I attended the annual Future of U. S. and China conference. hosted by the Asia Society here in San Francisco. The theme this year was Under Renewed Pressure, a reflection of the rapidly shifting dynamics between U. S. and China. There were over 30 influential speakers, including five ambassadors, and for me, the discussions provided different perspectives on how both U.

S. and China are heading in different directions. Yet, how interdependent they really are. Navigating the geopolitical, economic, and cultural challenges over the next few years will be turbulent, and will require engagement at many levels. I hope that you will find great value from each of these highly relevant videos.

Now,[00:17:00] 

to conclude this second episode, I will share reflections from my time at Intel on managing through uncertainties, specifically addressing the importance of communication during times of chaos and unpredictability, while also providing you with some practical guidance. Now, over the last seven years, There has been no shortage of trade related restrictions and barriers affecting Intel and creating a constant state of chaos.

We experienced a barrage of regulations. including the unrelenting publication of export controls, and the almost weekly and sometimes daily entity listings, the increase in tariffs, and or the routine publication of comprehensive global sanctions. These regulations were complex, they were technical, and they they turned [00:18:00] my small invisible transaction based team into a specialized strategic cross geo team with weekly and sometimes daily C suite visibility and connection.

I can confirm that it was an exciting time, but chaotic at best. I would often remind my team members that this is the new norm, and we must all learn how to be comfortable in the chaos. One of the skills I realized quite early in this type of situation was the importance of information flow and how best to manage it.

For example, absence of information can fuel speculation and mistrust. Misinformation can spread like wildfire and it becomes difficult to put out. [00:19:00] Untimely information can be too early and ignored or too late to address significant issues. There is never too much information, like there is never too much water.

for wildfires. Ultimately, what I learned was a crisis requires timely, accurate, and appropriate communication. So let me share with you how I became more comfortable in the chaos and my journey towards better communication. I hope that this will provide you with practical steps in managing your own chaos.

For my recollection, the lessons really started back in 2017 when the U. S. government placed an important customer of ours, ZTE, on the entity list. At the time, we had really no idea [00:20:00] what was coming. And over the course of the next seven years, we addressed an unbelievable number of what I call regulatory tremors.

Eventually, my staff put together a chart that best illustrated the magnitude and the consistency of these tremors. The chart, I wish I could show you, but I'll just describe it. The chart was a timeline, you know, from 2017 to today. And on that timeline, we documented on the top every export related restriction or barrier.

that we had to address. And on the bottom, we, we identified every customs related challenge, like tariffs, that we had to address. And then actually, when we got to 2022, we had a new, uh, bar, I mean, a new set of, uh, criteria which reflected the sanctions that came about as the, uh, Russia invaded Ukraine. And when you [00:21:00] step back and you looked at that chart and you saw, over a period of time, the extent of the, the, the trade barriers and the challenges that had to be addressed, Uh, on an ongoing basis, it was quite overwhelming.

And I am confident there are many others of you listening that probably can relate and have lived through. a similar situation. Now to navigate such comprehensive and consistent regulatory changes, we had to first and foremost determine how to comply, but at the same time how to keep the business running.

This became the top challenge and the top priority for the team. Ongoing and timely communication became essential and expected and the team couldn't keep up. For example, you. News media. [00:22:00] As the world became more aware of these restrictions, the news media picked it up and everyone became aware and began to ask for more information.

Executives, internal groups within the company, representatives from impacted countries and customers wanted answers on how it would impact them. Often, understanding full impact took too long, and as a good, as good compliance professionals, we wanted to get all the facts sorted out before we communicated.

As more questions came in, we had less and less time to do the actual work, including coming out with the full impact. Compliance communications are complex and not easily understood. It takes time and effort to restate the information in an understandable way. Pressure from legal requirements require timely reporting of impact to the company.

And in addition to understanding the impact on the [00:23:00] business, the team had to determine how to implement the new requirements within systems, across processes, and with all affected employees, partners. and customers. It didn't take long to figure out that a different approach was necessary. So I started, um, by identifying a person on the working team for the particular issue to be responsible for communications.

This person would be the sole recipient of questions and the single voice for communications outward. This helped shield the team, uh, from the insatiable desire for more communication, but really it still was unmanageable. for the compliance team. So in response, I eventually hired a full time trade communications manager.

This was a person in the organization who had a trade background and was already responsible for our internal team communications, for the training programs that [00:24:00] we have, and also for keeping our website up to date. up to date. In this role, the person would make regulatory communication a top priority over everything else.

We established a process for determining who, when, and how to communicate trade regulatory changes. So under the who, what we did was we established three target groups, and the timing, the content, and the frequency of the communication were different for each group. So we identified individuals who were inside the trade group that needed to understand what was happening.

We identified Intel leadership, including executive and C suite. And we identified the key partners, suppliers, and customers, both internal and external. We also had to look at when, because timing is critical. Sometimes it was better to get something out with a promise to provide more details as soon as they became available, instead of waiting to [00:25:00] present a fully wrapped package.

In each situation, we considered how soon to communicate it. and how often. Keeping in mind, most people want to know the impact as soon as possible. Next, we addressed how. How do we communicate? Well, given the intended audience and the severity of the situation, we would determine how much detail was enough.

Sometimes, a simple quick heads up was the first action. At other times, a detailed synopsis or a comprehensive summary was necessary. We used an FAQ process, our website, and we continued to update it so people had the most current information. This way you could point people to this official document instead of answering questions all day long.

And then finally we had, we talked through the what. You know, communicating complex regulatory [00:26:00] information in a simple, easy to understand manner. is a skill to learn, a muscle to develop, and a necessary talent to practice. And this included learning how to take regulatory communication or even business updates and reduce them to the fewest possible words.

Many of us, especially the executive community, are reading messages on our handheld device while running at a million miles per hour. When executives receive an important email message, they don't want to be scrolling and scrolling to get to the main point. Through this practice, we eventually could reduce our message content to by half.

I often asked my team members, think about it, will our grandmothers understand this? A simple but precise communication takes a little more time, [00:27:00] but like any skill, you get better with practice. The measuring stick I used to determine the success of my own communication was zero questions from the executive leadership.

If I got zero questions, I was pretty certain I had gotten through. at the right level with the right information. I worked on these communication practices for myself and my team members for years. Learning how to use our communication to elevate the value of our work became a top priority. It's really easy to tell someone what you did or even how you did it, but it's more challenging and more exciting to describe the fantastic result of of your efforts.

For example, here is a sample dialogue I might have with someone on my team. So the [00:28:00] team member would say to me, Hey Jeff, let me share with you something we accomplished yesterday. We worked really hard with internal ops to gather all the required export data, and we submitted an export license application to BIS for the XYZ project.

Me, what do I say? This is fantastic. Well done. But, so what? This is what you're here to do. Team member. Oh yes, but wait. When we receive the approved export license, it will create 1 billion in additional revenue opportunity for a new customer in a controlled country. And then me. Wow! Now that's That will be great.

What you are really telling me is that the result of all your excellent work is enabling the company to raise revenue an additional 1 billion. This is a great result. Let's go now and talk to the group [00:29:00] GM and highlight this wonderful result. This is an example of how we would learn to focus more on our results.

Um, we, this is also an example of how we in the international trade group won top awards in the company. We were always doing impactful work, but we were not communicating it in a way that enabled others to fully grasp the significance of our efforts to the enterprise. We also changed the way we described ourselves from, you know, we are the international trade group and we ensure Intel complies with all trade regulations.

Two, we are the International Trade Group and we enable our business to grow in compliance with trade regulations. This is a simple change, but it elevates our purpose, it enhances our focus, and it expands our relevance. So let me summarize the key lessons. [00:30:00] A crisis requires timely, accurate, and appropriate communication.

Communicating complex regulatory information in a simple, easy to understand manner is a skill to learn, a muscle to develop, and a necessary talent to practice. Learning how to use communication to describe the results of the work elevates the value of your team, your And the work they perform for the enterprise.

With that, I'd like to thank you again for listening. In my next episode, I am excited to have a surprise guest join me. And for those of you that are celebrating the Lunar New Year. I wish you a happy new year and good fortune in the year of the snake. I am certain that as we prepare ourselves for the approaching inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States, we are all [00:31:00] wondering what will happen next.

Well, for the past 75 days, we have all been able to freely move about the cabin. However, we are about to enter a period of unprecedented change. The seatbelt sign is on. Please return to your seat and fasten your seatbelt. Thank you for listening. Talk to you all soon.