Jr (00:00)
Welcome back to Written Reflections for 2026, a forum for exploring the dynamic, complex, and essential nature of cross-border trade in an ever-changing world, and a space to reflect on the deeper questions that shape how we live, lead, and move through uncertainty. I'm really excited to continue this podcast and to deliver content that informs, inspires, and hopefully,

Scratch is where you itch. My intention is quite simple, to talk about what matters most, when it matters most, and to talk about trade. Trade is the lens, life is the story. And as always, I'd love to hear from you, your ideas, your suggestions, and your feedback. This is to be a conversation, not a monologue, and your perspective helps shape

where we go next. So first, I want to offer best wishes to all of you listening for a fantastic 2026. I hope you are off to a good start and that you're ready for what the next 11 months have to offer. Now, this is my first episode of the year, and I intend to talk about how I see 2026 shaping up.

in the world of global trade. As I said all of last year, 2025 was in my mind the year of uncertainty. I remember ⁓ back last year in January, I went to a number of conferences and had a lot of discussions with people. And one of the themes I heard and it was this idea of we

We just don't know what's going to happen if you all recall, you know at the beginning of the year we were we knew that President Trump was coming into office and there was a lot of uncertainty and so I kind of you know, really focused on that throughout the year, but By the time we reached December It had become to me the year of the unexpected and I talked about that in my end of the year episode You know in many ways

To me it felt like stepping into a ring with a prize fighter who never stopped swinging. know blow after blow, punch after punch. You know we saw that with tariffs, shocks, regulations, surprises. And you know half the time you didn't even know where the next hit would come from. You know it was a year when the fight didn't go the way anyone expected.

And yet we're still here, battered maybe, bruised definitely, but we're standing. And for that, I'm grateful. I often think about that feeling I had when I ran the marathon back in December. And I spoke about that in episode 21. I remember ⁓ the mix of exhaustion, my resolve, and just my gratitude.

The especially as I got to mile 22 of the marathon, you this was the point where, my legs stopped negotiating and they simply just refused to cooperate. You know, the goal that I had was lost. The plan was gone. The essential pace that I was chasing became apparent that it was impossible to achieve. And so then what happened is my body just screamed to stop.

And all that was really left for me was to finish. And so it took one step, then another, and then another. And each time I took a step or each time I passed a kilometer marker, it was a small win. And at that moment, what kept me moving wasn't strength at all. It was really intention and appreciation. Now, I was intent on crossing the finish line no matter what.

And throughout that time, I kept thinking how thankful I was to be able to be there in Spain, to have that opportunity to run, to see all the people. And as you got closer to the finish, there were many people cheering, you know, and then the chance just to be in that moment. So that's really the mindset that I'm carrying into 2026. Because I really believe this year isn't about waiting for the next punch. This is the year we can...

We can control the fight. More offense, know, more creativity, hyper-focused, smart thinking, and a commitment to small, compounding wins that really will move us forward.

Jr (05:22)
There are three forces that stand out as the most consequential for global trade in 2026. And I'd like to share these ⁓ from the latest UNCTAD ⁓ and microeconomic analysis. These aren't abstract trends. They're the structural pressures that will shape supply chains, investment decisions, and the ump...

operating environment for every globally exposed organization. Now, UNCTAD stands for the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. It is the UN body that's responsible for analyzing global trade trends, advising developing and emerging economies, producing some of the most respected trade and investment reports in the world.

and shaping thinking on supply chains, digital trade, and development. You see, if the WTO is about rules, UNCTAD is about realities, the economics, the data, and the development implications. So recently, ⁓ they released their annual global trade update and world investment report. And these are widely used by policymakers, economists,

and global companies to understand where the system is heading. So to begin with, I'd like to just take a look at three forces that are promoted through the UNCTAD and their assessment. And that first force is this slowing global growth and tightening financial conditions. So the global growth

is projected to remain subdued at around 2.6 % in 2026 with major economies, the US, EU and China, all losing momentum. Slower growth weakens export demand. It tightens financing and it reduces the capacity of developing economies to invest in industrialization and in infrastructure. So this creates

A few things. One is softer demand for goods. Two, more cautious capital expenditure. Three, greater vulnerability to shocks. And last, a premium on regional diversification. So this really isn't a crisis. It's more a drag. And drag changes how you move. This is really the macro backdrop every trade dependent company.

is going to have to navigate. Second force we can expect is rising protectionism and policy uncertainty. So we all know that in 2025 tariffs rose significantly. And this was especially seen in manufacturing areas. This was driven largely by unilateral measures by the United States. Protectionism is expected to remain elevated in 2026.

with the WTO reform at a crossroads and geopolitical tensions continuing to pressure multilateral rules. So the key dynamics of this force that we can expect is higher applied tariffs, more frequent use of trade restrictions, uncertain US trade policy, including potential legal challenges to the tariff authority. You we are sitting on the

precipice of a Supreme Court decision that will have huge implications to how the United States in particular goes forward with tariffs. And I think finally fragmentation of global rules. So what we're going to see is the fight isn't, ⁓ it's just isn't in the ring anymore. It's in the rule book, if you will. Now this environment increases compliance, complexity and forces companies

to build agility into their sourcing and market strategies. Now the third force is structural shifts in supply chains. And this could be seen in the digital area, in green technology and in geopolitics. Now UNCTAD in their reports highlight accelerating digital and green transitions, rerouting of Chinese exports, and tighter national regulations.

as major forces that will reshape global value chains. We also know that AI-related trade and investment remains a bright spot, but they won't fully offset the drag from tariffs and slower growth. So what does all this mean in practice? Well, first, supply chains continue to reorganize around resilience, not necessarily around efficiency. ⁓ Regulatory regimes are going to continue to gain influence.

over those that are trading. We'll see climate linked trade measures and these will reshape a competitiveness. And finally, digital trade rules and data governance become real strategic battlegrounds. So despite all of the talk in the world today of decoupling, the real story I think is called rewiring, not retreat. So we'll see more nodes, more partners, more complexity.

and more interdependence. So resilience then becomes what replaces efficiency as the guiding principle. So this is the new geometry of global trade. If I could sum it up, I would say it's more complex, it's more regulated and more strategically contested. So if this is the new geometry of global trade, then surviving it and actually leading through it

requires more than analysis. It requires intentionality. And for me, that intentionality comes down to four words that have been going on in my mind for the last month or so. So I thought I would just share the four words as a way of presenting sort of a mindset for all of us as we go forward. First word that's just been on my mind a lot is this idea of ⁓ dedication. You know, because

In a world that is unpredictable, if you think about it, dedication isn't just about working harder. It's about committing to the work that matters the most. It's about showing up with a very, very clear purpose. It's the discipline to stay engaged when the landscape shifts, when the rules tighten, and when the noise gets louder. Dedication really is the anchor that keeps you steady when everything else

feels in motion. Now the second word that I've been thinking a lot about is this idea of being determined and I use the word determination. You know when I think about dedication, know, dedication gets you to the starting line. But determination is what carries you through the miles, especially those that you didn't plan for. You know, the unexpected, you know, where the terrain shifts.

where rules change and where the path that you thought you were on suddenly looks different. You know, can attest to this ⁓ when I think about my marathon running, you know, I spent, for a marathon, I spent over 16 weeks with a very disciplined ⁓ training plan. And in order to be ready for that starting line, I have to be extremely a bit dedicated to stick to the plan and make sure that I've done the right training.

As I learned in Valencia, you know, I can be well trained, can be as ⁓ dedicated as ever, but things don't always go the way you want. And so to get across the finish line, took incredible determination. You know, in the area of global trade, determination isn't just about stubbornness. You know, it's about staying in the fight, especially when the punches just keep coming from angles that you didn't expect.

You know, it's the willingness to keep moving when the plan breaks, you know, when, you know, your ⁓ pace disappears or even when ⁓ that uncertainty around you just feels heavier than the opportunity. I think that, you know, determination is the mindset that says we don't fold, we adapt. We don't wait for stability, we create momentum. And we don't hope the world calms down.

we stay intentional and how we navigate it.

So that brings me to the third word that's been on my mind. And this is kind of an interesting one because I keep thinking about this word distraction. oftentimes when I think about distraction, I think about it in almost like the enemy of the good, right? It's the thing that pulls me away from what I should be doing. We all go through that, we get distracted. We get off course.

In the end, sometimes that is exactly what happens. But I think we found last year in 2025 that this distraction was everywhere. know, almost every day of the news cycle had some news that affected global trade. There was a lot of noise, just a constant barrage of surprises, you know, that kept us continually reacting instead of purposefully leading. But, you know, there is another

side of distraction that I think is really important. And especially as we go through the challenges that we are going through. And this one's a quieter one. I think about it as it's the song that you put on during that long run when the pain starts to whisper. It's the game that you watch on the weekend to escape the weight of the week.

You know, it's the art or the conversation, the moment that lets your mind breathe. So I think that side of distraction can be extremely helpful. Distraction, I think, becomes dangerous when it chooses us, but I think distraction becomes powerful when we choose it, when it becomes a tool for recovery, not an escape from responsibility. And then lastly, the fourth.

where that I've been thinking about is differentiation.

Because after dedication and your determination and learning how to use distraction instead of letting it use us, what really carries us forward is this intentionality. You know, that intentionality that you will finish the race, you know, to achieve your goal. You know, the intentionality, you know, to stop reacting to every punch and start choosing our line.

you know, the intentionality that knows what makes us different as leaders and as organizations and as people. And then we learn to lean into it. You know, in 2025, a lot of us got pulled into someone else's rhythm. You think about competitors, you the headlines that you were chasing every day, you know, the politics, the noise. It was really...

easy to lose your footing because perhaps, you know, we all are watching the wrong fight. But in 2026, I believe this could be the year of intentional differentiation. The year of saying this is who we are. This is how we operate. This is the value we deliver. Not louder, not faster, just more deliberate, more purposeful.

more intentional. So these four words that all begin with a D are how we kind of enter the ring. But once we're in it, now we need a plan, a way to move, to counter, to stay on the offense. So I'm going to offer you for 2026 ⁓ a plan in the world of global trade ⁓ with five things that I think every

global trade team should focus on. So let me walk you through that now. Number one is to build strategic clarity around this new trade geometry. You know, this ⁓ could be the year where understanding the system matters more than predicting it. As I shared with you earlier, the forces

the geopolitical and the global forces ⁓ affecting the world, we realize the world is slower, it's heavier and more interconnected, even then the headlines that we read every day suggest. I believe that 2026 will reward teams that understand the system and not those who try to outrun it. So let me offer you what this could look like in practice.

One is, ⁓ you could map your exposure to the three big forces, slower growth, high protectionism, and supply chain rewiring. Identify where your company is vulnerable to tariffs and sanctions and regulatory drift. You could identify where your supply chain is fragile and where it's quietly resilient. And perhaps create a simple

visual trade risk map that your leadership can actually use. These are actions that maybe many of you are already pursuing. For those that have not, I offer those. And in each of these five, I'm gonna make the point that this is what it means to go on the offense. And so why is this particular one offense? Well, it's because you stop reacting to every headline.

and you start shaping the decisions that need to be made with clarity. You know the ring you're fighting in. This is how you stop reacting to punches and you start seeing the ring. Let me give you an example. ⁓ From my experience, one of the things that ⁓ we often used back when I ran global trade for Intel is we used risk maps. We had color coded maps, red, yellow, green.

And year by year, we plotted the various trade risks that we saw on the horizon so that we could proactively prepare how to manage those risks. Many of you have, I'm sure, participated in game boarding exercise where you actually map out what you think you need to do to address the future risks.

you know, also called scenario planning. In fact, I was remembering, I think it was my written reflections episode eight, where I did a whole session on scenario planning in a time of uncertainty. And I encourage you to go back and listen to that.

Okay, second here is to turn compliance into a competitive advantage. You know, could 2026 be the year where your compliance team or your program stops being a cost center only and becomes a strategic lever? So what does that look like in practice? Well,

Learning how to anticipate regulatory shifts before they hit you. You know, building rapid response playbooks in advance that will prevent panic. You know, partnering with product and supply chain and it may be even legal to help shape decisions and make decisions early rather than having to, you know, clean up later.

and using compliance insights to shape a strategy. ⁓ Being at a place where compliance can be a difference maker. So why is this offense? Well, you're not just trying to avoid penalties. ⁓ You're enabling smarter, faster, risk-based decisions that ultimately will lead your company to more growth.

You know, compliance really, I don't think is no longer the cost of doing business. It's really the cost of winning. So I'll give you some examples. Back last year, the US government Department of Commerce published what was called the Affiliates Rule, where companies were going to be asked to actually assess the ownership of entities that were ⁓

identified on a banned list. Then suddenly in November, they put that on a year pause. Likewise in China, there were rules ⁓ put forward in the form of ⁓ memos that placed never before seen controls on rare earths, even if you were re-exporting them from other countries, which could have had, you know,

devastating impact on many companies. Unfortunately, those rules also, as part of the US-China meetings in November, were put on a year pause. But, you know, this concept of turning compliance into a competitive advantage to me would indicate that you have the option, you can set those rules aside and you'll deal with them in November, or you can continue working on what it would take to comply if they do drop at any day. And that is possible.

And so that's just an example of where you spend the time ahead of time trying to figure out how you can get ahead of the game, if you will. And this whole affiliates ⁓ rule I talked about back in one of

earlier episodes, I believe it was episode 14 So you could go back and take a look at that one as well.

Okay, third is to invest in micro resilience, that being small wins that compound. Small wins will keep you moving even when, you know, your plan breaks, when the odds seem unsurmountable, and even like in a marathon when you hit the brick wall. ⁓ You know, I've experienced that many, many times and I think I described it pretty

Well in my episode 21 on, you know, my race in Valencia, but there is in every race, there is a time when you do kind of hit a wall when it just doesn't seem like you want to keep going and it just you just want to stop. And so I think in business and in this world that we're operating in, in the area of trade, I think that that brick wall is pops up often. So what do we do about that? So here's a couple of examples of what this looks like in practice, you know.

We all have reviews that we go through. We look at regulations or we look at different strategies or different processes. so shorten those review cycles. Find ways to make those happen quicker so you can move quicker. You know, take a look at your processes and, you know, spend some time, you know, automating. Maybe automate one small process each month. It's a small step, but it'll compound. Reduce one friction point in your system per quarter.

Build one new relationship with a regulator or a partner or a peer. Small steps, but they will compound. Capture one lesson learned from every disruption. All of these could be super useful. Why is this offense? Well, because small wins build momentum, and momentum builds confidence, and confidence

changes how a team shows up in the fight. I recall as an example, ⁓ back in my days at Intel, there were times where there were rules that suddenly required us to go obtain export licenses that we had never had to obtain before. And the common view ⁓ internally and also externally and with think tanks and legal firms was that's impossible.

⁓ Because there's a you know a presumption of denial. So why even try? Well, my group sat down and we said Okay. Well, let's just submit one and See what happens work with bias see if we can get it and lo and behold we got one and that then led us to try another one ⁓ and sometimes we didn't get licenses and we had to go back and Try to understand why?

and then maybe make a small change and to resubmit and maybe we got the license. So all that's an example of small steps that compound, small wins, if you will.

Number four, strengthen your cross-functional muscle. Trade teams, I believe, win when they're embedded in the business, not isolated. So what does that look like in practice? Well, every company has obviously their products or services, maybe software that they're offering, they're selling, and everyone has a product roadmap.

So as a trade team, get into the product roadmap discussion as early as possible.

And that means you're going to have to work with the engineering teams and try to understand the future of what is being developed. ⁓ Influence supply chain design before decisions harden and you have to try to live with it. ⁓ Partner with your finance teams on tariff forecasting and scenario planning, no matter what happens with the Supreme Court decision on the AIIPA.

Tariffs, as they're called, there will be tariffs. The game has clearly changed. Tariffs will continue to be a large part of how trade is managed around the world. And so we have to get good. We have to partner with others like finance to forecast and scenario plan, as I've said earlier. And educating leadership on real risks, not just the ones everybody reads about in

the media and the paper, but really understanding for your company or for your, work that you do, what are the real risks that you should invest your time in? So why is this offense? Well, it's smart thinking. You know, it's turning trade into a strategic voice. You know, I've worked long and hard over my career ⁓ to become better at explaining

Complexity and today in the world of trade it is complex and I find that oftentimes when we have an opportunity to explain we focus more on what we did or How we did it which is all good But what's really important is trying to explain why we did it and why it matters to the company and that's a skill that Has to be developed. That's a muscle, right? It's a

cross-functional muscle that has to be developed. go into great lengths and give great examples of this. ⁓ In my second ever episode of Written and Reflections almost a year ago, I encourage you to go back and listen to that one if you want to hear more about that. Okay, finally number five. Number five is build differentiation through proactive compliance. I believe the trade team needs to be sought after.

not hidden in a corner somewhere. And I've been there. But it needs to be sought after because they simplify complexity, they demonstrate expertise, and they deliver solutions that really help the company. So what does that look like in practice? Well, here's a couple examples. You know, maybe when there is a change, ⁓

learning how to produce a simple one page insight that just cuts through all the noise and just gets to the bottom line. It takes practice to do that. Another one, becoming a team that explains the world rather than just reporting on it. Oftentimes I found our communication would be like a reporter, hey, here's what happened, but not a lot about what it really means.

Leadership in a company really wants to understand why does this matter to me? And third, know offering compliance solutions the kind of solutions that a leader Will actually adopt and say that makes sense that really will help us and so it takes a lot of effort a lot of thought a lot of understanding your business and Like I said focusing on solutions that will

be acceptable to leadership. So how is this offense? Well, it's turning complexity into clarity, which helps everyone move forward better. In a very noisy year, I believe trade teams that can bring clarity, they become indispensable. And I can share with you a number of my.

These themes are woven through a number of my episodes, but at Intel, as we were a trade department, we saw this play out where we were that small little team that everybody kind of knew about because they made sure things didn't, they made sure things kept moving and not stop. But it was a journey to get to the point where we could actually be seen as, you know,

the organization to go to because they would provide you with clarity about changes in regulations. They would provide you with solutions that would help you and your business navigate that complexity. And so I walked that journey. saw, I know it can be done. And so I encourage you as if you're leading a trade team in particular or any team for that matter, is to try to figure out, ask yourself, how can I simplify complexity? What would that take?

How can I do that? So those are my five.

things that I would offer every global trade organization that you should focus on. know, one, build strategic clarity around the new trade geometry. That's always changing, right? Two, turn compliance into a competitive advantage. Three, invest in micro resilience. You know, small wins that compound. Four,

Strengthen your cross-functional muscle. Don't be isolated. Be the trade team that's known by everybody ⁓ because of what you offer. And finally, five, build differentiation through your proactive compliance. Get ahead of the game and ⁓ like I said, be that organization that everyone seeks out to help during these really uncertain times.

So as we step into 2026, we're already a month in, I'm thinking about clarity, but I think even more so about intentionality. You know, because this year really isn't about absorbing all those punches and trying to guess where the next one's coming from. It's about choosing how you move, choosing how you respond, choosing when to defend and when to go on the offensive.

You know, there's a lot of people that I've heard them say, you know, defense wins championships. And that's probably there's a lot of truth to that. If you don't have a good defense, it's very likely that you'll you'll lose. mean, I mean, everything from sports, maybe even to a chess match. But I do think. Ultimately, it's offense that wins because the best that a defense can do is a tie.

Right? I mean, I mean, if you don't want to lose, it's a tie. So you need offense to score points. Right. And I think as trade organizations, we have to learn how to be on the offensive and score points, not just defensive compliance. Oftentimes connotates the idea of defense. And I'm here to say, I think that we as compliance, as compliance organizations can go on the offensive. You know, we all know really well after this last year that the world of global trade is unpredictable.

In fact, I think it has always been. But today, tariffs are shifting. Export regulations are tightening. Supply chains are being rewired in real time. But this unpredictability doesn't mean passivity. It means we must be more deliberate, more purposeful, more intentional in navigating all the noise around us.

You know, defense, as I said, will always matter. you because you never want you never stop protecting the business. You never stop managing risks. But as I said, defense alone won't carry you through 2026, not this year. This is the year where you must take control of the fight with offense, with creativity, with hyper focus on what's most important, with smart thinking and decision making.

You know, getting those small wins that compound into real momentum. Intentionality ⁓ is the through line. Intentionality in how we read the landscape. Intentionality in how we build resilience. Intentionality is how we partner across the business. Intentionality is how we differentiate ourselves, not by being louder, but by being more deliberate in the value.

we deliver. So here's to a year defined not by the punches we take, but by the choices we make. A year where we run our own race, fight our own fight, and move with purpose. One step, one decision, one intentional action at a time.

Jeff (38:12)
As I wrap up this episode, I would like to refer back to ⁓ episode 14 of Written Reflections, which was published back in late July of 2025. That session I dedicated to the beginning of the NFL American football season. I started that episode by recording from training camp, which was being held at Levi's Stadium.

and I made the point that it all begins and ends at Levi's. I said from training camp dreams to Super Bowl destiny, the road to glory doesn't just pass through Levi's Stadium. It starts and ends here. Well, here we are less than two weeks from the Super Bowl that will be held on February 8th at Levi's Stadium in my hometown in Santa Clara and

⁓ We have been wondering all season long who will be those two teams out of the 32 total teams that will show up in Santa Clara. I asked that question back in those days. I made my predictions which have not come true. And as of today, ⁓ we now know who those two teams are. The two teams that have battled for six months through a grueling NFL season have made it through

elimination games and have survived to face one another in this ultimate game called the Super Bowl with the winner becoming the champion of the NFL ⁓ League. Those two teams are the New England Patriots who have won the championship from the American Football Conference and the Seattle Seahawks who have won the championship from the National Football Conference. These two teams will meet in Santa Clara.

to see who will ultimately raise what they call the Lombardi Trophy to be the Super Bowl champions of the 2025 season. So I will have a lot more to share as I do plan on attending and I will share that in my next episode. Until then, I wanna thank you for listening and I wish you a wonderful next few weeks and we will

you again real soon. Thank